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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.