🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."